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Monitoring report on cement price index operation in the third quarter of 2019.

[Oct 19,2019]

In the third quarter, the national cement price index (CEMPI) dropped by 2.36% compared with the previous quarter index. In the third quarter of 2019, July and August probably the summer season, causing hot and rainy weather at various places, that declined the demand leaving the market at low level. Compared with the same period of 2018, CEMPI increased by 3.55% in the third quarter compared with the same period.

See Figure 1: the third quarter of the national cement price chain and year-on-year trend can be shown below.

By month, the third quarter cement price trend into a “V” shape, July shows monthly decline of 2.15%, August  monthly declines  0.9%, and September monthly rises of 2.47%.This distribution and weather effects, in September begins the autumn, so the weather becomes good, also there becomes the strong demand, and the market is good. Compared with the same period in 2018, the monthly average price growth dropped by 0.25%.In general, the third quarter cement price index is in quite shocking state compared with PPI, cement price index growth in the third quarter was weaker than PPI performance.

See Figure 2: month-on-month trend of CEMPI and PPI.

The price of cement in north China and northwest China rose slightly in the third quarter in the six regions, and the price of cement in the rest of the regions were adjusted to different levels. The cement price in north China and northwest China rose slightly, with an average increase of 1.55%. The cement price in northeast China, east China, central south and southwest China thoroughly declined, with an average decrease of 2.94%. Among them, northwest area rose most, central and south area cement price backwards most. Compared with the same period last year, the northeast price index dropped 9.01% in the third quarter, while the other five regions’ price index  rose  between 2% and 10%.

See .Figure 3: quarter-on-quarter trend of cement price index in six regions in the third quarter (%).

In the third quarter of the southeast coastal areas by the great impact of the off-season , the price generally fell overall, the third quarter of the cement price changes due to regional difference. While the Southeast coastal area is affected greatly by off season, so the price drops generally, average drop is 3.29%.Markets in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and western provinces were relatively stable, with an average increase of 2.41 percent.17 provinces and cities in China faced P.O42.5 bulk cement prices drop, among which fujian and guizhou on the top of  the decline , falling by 6.49% and 8.24% respectively .Prices rose in 14 provinces,  Inner Mongolia and hainan are leading the way, with year-on-year increases of 8.31% and 10.58%, respectively.

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